During the past three years the Gateway I steering committee, working with the Maine Department of Transportation (MDOT), has gathered information to develop a long-range plan for the future of Route 1 from Brunswick to Prospect.

The purpose of the Gateway I study is to help the state, residents and communities plan for the future, in areas of property rights, growth management, open spaces, truck traffic, and traffic congestion.

The steering committee developed three scenarios that simulate what Route 1 in the midcoast area could look like in 2030. Kathy Fuller, the MDOT point person for the Gateway I project, gave an overview of the first scenario at the Midcoast Bypass Task Force meeting May 1.

The first scenario called "Riding the Current" projects what could happen in the midcoast during an economic boom - if Bath Iron Works employees spiked and high-tech companies flooded the Brunswick Naval Air Station (scheduled to close in 2011), tourism remains strong, and the fishing industry drops but remains stable. The Wiscasset bypass would be built, there would be limited expansion in bus and transit, with no new public highways, and driving habits would not be altered by high fuel prices.

According to Fuller's presentation, most local roads and collectors will double or more in traffic volume over the next 25 years. The roads have the ability to absorb this growth without much effect to capacity or safety. However, this growth has quality of life implications. The vast majority of the corridor will remain rural and Route 1 will continue to operate at or near capacity.

The largest growth on Route 1 is expected from Brunswick to Waldoboro, and most local roads would increase up to 1,000 vehicles per day.

The Gateway project is divided into five regions; Region 1, Brunswick, West Bath, Bath, and Woolwich; Region 2, Wiscasset, Edgecomb, Newcastle, Damariscotta, and Nobleboro; Region 3, Waldoboro, Warren, Thomaston, and Rockland; Region 4, Rockport, Camden, Lincolnville, and Northport; Region 5, Belfast, Searsport, Stockton Springs, and Prospect.

There will be significant new job growth evenly distributed between all regions, with the greatest numerical growth in Region 1, and the highest percentage of growth in Region 2. Downtown will become less dominant, according to the scenario.

The housing growth in the Route 1 corridor will be less than the job growth during the same period. The job growth in Region 2, (Wiscasset, Edgecomb, Newcastle, Damariscotta, and Nobleboro) is estimated to be up about 62 percent, and the dwelling units are estimated to grow only 36 percent.

The second scenario, called "Perfect Storm," simulates what happens if the growth in the Midcoast continues along its current trends, and the third scenario, "Four Wind," suggests what would happen if an economic slump hits the Midcoast by 2030; for example, if BIW closed and Bank of America closed its midcoast operations.

According to Fuller, these scenarios will help communities and MDOT to plan for the future of Route 1 and preserve the scenic quality of the midcoast. "It will also help MDOT prioritize its spending on infrastructure improvements," Fuller said.